Stability and dynamics of party system in Russia: new opportunities for studying

Shpagin S.A.

Annotation

The article is devoted to assessment of the general scales of dynamics of party system of modern Russia by means of the quantitative analysis. For the solution of an objective in work the research of statistical data on results State Duma elections in 1993-2016 with use of the modified index of electoral volatility is conducted. The traditional technique of a research developed by M. Pedersen was guided only by dynamics of stable democracies and was under construction on calculation of changes of level of electoral support of parties. Materials of a research show need of detailed account not only fluctuations for support of parties by voters, but also the structural changes in party system happening during the period between elections to representative bodies of the power. It is for this purpose offered to add calculation of electoral volatility with calculation of the index of interelectoral volatility by a method E. Powell and J. Tucker and total indicator of the general volatility. In addition, this method demands adjustment as it in the initial version does not consider indicators of small parties. Only such technique allows estimating fully how essential were scales of changes in the Russian party system in the 1990th and what structure these changes had. The obtained data allow drawing a conclusion that after sharp splash volatility since 1999 quickly decreases, and even the new wave of party construction after 2012 did not exert impact on this tendency.

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