POLITICAL EXPERTISE OF THE REGIONAL SECURITY PROBLEMS (BLACK SEA-CASPIAN REGION): STAGES, INSTITUTES, TECHNOLOGIES

Vaschenko Alexander V.

Annotation

The paper deals with the stages, basic institutions and some technologies of political expertise of regional security of the Russian Federation. The emphasis is made on the military security of Russia in the black sea-Caspian region. Based on these positions, the object and subject of the study are determined. The process of political expertise is divided into five stages: determination of the object of analysis and its level in the structure of international relations (global, regional, internal); study of the basic documents of strategic planning; system analysis of the real policy of the object of expertise; explanation of the reasons for the discrepancy between “real political” and the positions set out in the strategic documents; formation of predictive models of the situation. The structure and directions of activity of the main institutions of the Russian Federation specializing in expert assessments in the field of regional security in the southern direction are analyzed. It should be borne in mind that the term “southern direction” is interpreted by a number of experts in an expansive manner and includes the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and the Caspian sea. In addition to the expert units of public authorities, the activities of the most well - known non - governmental expert institutions operating in this field were considered. The special place in work is given to consideration of technologies (techniques) of carrying out expert actions. In the article they are divided into three groups: information - analytical methods, operational and information - prognostic (methods of constructing scenarios of the situation). The methods of text information processing (aggregate, extractive and graphic) are considered. Factors and criteria for carrying out qualitative expert research are defined. Identified fundamental differences between expertise and “pseudox - by testing”. The types of working documentation necessary for the work of experts are determined.

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