THE CASPIAN REGION:Politics, Economics, Culture

Scientific journal


2019. №1, pp. 89-94

Baranov Andrey V. - D.Sc. (Policy), D.Sc. (History), Professor, Kuban State University, 149 Stavropolskaya St., Krasnodar, 350040, Russian Federation,

The subject of the geopolitical conflict in the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov is defined - the status of these areas. Resources of influence, positions and tactics of the participants of the conflict - Russia, Ukraine, NATO and its countries are compared. The local conflict in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait was for NATO a new reason to challenge Russian control over the Crimea and justify its expansion in the Black Sea region. The subordinate role of Ukraine is proved in comparison with the NATO countries. Ukraine, realizing its weakness, seeks to internationalize the conflict, to achieve permanent residence of the NATO Navy into the Black and Azov Seas, to abolish the Montreux Convention, to block the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles for the Russian Navy. The main aspects of the conflict are: control over the transport communication of Russia with the Crimea through the Kerch Strait; the work of the Ukrainian ports on the Azov coast; profits from the development of oil and gas offshore; the intention of Ukraine and NATO countries to destroy the Kerch bridge; the entry of the NATO Navy into the Sea of Azov is fraught with Ukraine’s full-scale war against the DPR and LPR; the desire of NATO and Ukraine to close for the Russian Navy the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, which will change the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean; the creation of a pretext for the introduction of martial law in Ukraine in order to improve the election rating of P.A. Poroshenko and justify the integration of Ukraine into NATO. The forecast of the development of the conflict is made, its significance is revealed as a threat to the national security of Russia.

Key words: геополитический конфликт, национальная безопасность, Керченский пролив, Азовское море, причины, интересы, динамика, geopolitical conflict, national security, Kerch Strait, AzovSeа, reasons, interests, dynamics